S17 Social Media Stats

[Agenator333]

With votes now closed...

 

MJsBigBlog

1. Kat Hammock

2. Katie Kadan

3. Rose Short

4. Max Boyle

5. Marybeth Byrd

6. Jake Hoot

7, Ricky Duran

8. Cali Wilson

9. Will Breman

10. Hello Sunday

11. Joana Martinez

12. Myracle Holloway

13. Shane Q

 

TV Line

1. Katie Kadan

2. Rose Short

3. Marybeth Byrd

4. Hello Sunday

5. Ricky Duran

6. Jake Hoot

7. Kat Hammock

8. Max Boyle

9. Will Breman

10. Cali Wilson

11. Joana Martinez

12. Myracle Holloway

13. Shane Q

 

 

Both point to the bottom 3 being Joana, Myracle, & Shane Q

[+Naira]

Joana :'( That song was a mack truck

[+Naira]

11. Will Breman "I Won't Give Up" 91.84%

12. Joana Martinez "Get on Your Feet" 90.35%

13. Shane Q "My Wish" 88.23%

Yours is the only score that shows Will in the B3 instead of Myracle. His performance was wtf but I expected him to have strong support bc aspie. Looking at the other polls, that support doesn't look as strong as I thought after all. All the other stats show him making it. It'll be interesting to see if this odd one out is more accurate.

 

But no matter who makes the bottom, Shane is going home.

 

[Rodney]

But no matter who makes the bottom, Shane is going home.

. . . Unless he goes last in the Instant Save. . . .

[+Naira]

. . . Unless he goes last in the Instant Save. . . .

I don't think it'll matter. The guy seems to have a bad case of stage fright. Singing for his life won't help.

 

[ATX29]

Joana :'( That song was a mack truck

 

Indeed. I'm trying to understand why tho?

 

Even tho I think she's good. Her PV last week was prolly the most surprising. Gwen looked shocked too. Maybe she threw a massive wrench in TPTB plans for the rest of the season and they need to knock her down a bit? I just don't know.

[+Naira]

 

Indeed. I'm trying to understand why tho?

 

Even tho I think she's good. Her PV last week was prolly the most surprising. Gwen looked shocked too. Maybe she threw a massive wrench in TPTB plans for the rest of the season and they need to knock her down a bit? I just don't know.

Looks like TPTB's already decided who they want from each team. Rose is it for Gwen, assuming they care about Gwen making the finals. Rose is good, sure, but Joana didn't deserve to be bussed like that. The producers are ruthless. I hate this show.

 

[ATX29]

Looks like TPTB's already decided who they want from each team. Rose is it for Gwen. Rose is good, sure, but Joana didn't deserve to be bussed like that. The producers are ruthless. I hate this show.

 

Agreed its brutal sometimes. They def threw the bus at Joana, but will it work? I know her SM numbers are low but do the people that voted her through last week really jump ship that quickly? Especially when there appears to be a very clear bottom 4 or 5 here?

[+Naira]

Agreed its brutal sometimes. They def threw the bus at Joana, but will it work? I know her SM numbers are low but do the people that voted her through last week really jump ship that quickly? Especially when there appears to be a very clear bottom 4 or 5 here?

Boils down to local support bc the song she got isn't the kind of songs casuals vote for. We know that for a fact.

 

[ShadowGuy1]

Yeah the bus hit Joana hard this week

 

If she’s in the IS against Myracle/Shane, I feel like she will win (and probably close the IS) but still. Honestly thought they would of pimped Joana more cause they always love getting young teenage girls in the finale, but they seem to care more about Hello Sunday as of now.

[spo1lersplease]

Who's more likely to get more votes from yesterday, Kat or Ricky? Kat per the MJ poll?

[dirActing]

UPDATED Top 13 YouTube Score Ranking (Updated 12 noon, pacific, 11/19/19)

 

Scoring: The score is derived by turning the likes to dislikes ratio for each performance into a percentage. The premise is that when viewers/listeners click like or dislike, it's akin to casting a vote. I reckon it'll be interesting to see how this correlates to the actual official vote. These scores were taken at approximately 12 midnight (Pacific), 11/18/19. I'll update them again and reassess the ranking at approximately 12 noon (Pacific), 11/19/19. Note that scores are most in flux during the first 24 hours or so of respective videos being posted, but after that they do tend to stabilize (the larger the sample size, the better). The videos most recently posted will be the most volatile in terms of scoring. Videos with lower scores tend to experience more flux compared to those at the higher end.

 

1. Rose Short "I Turn to You" 98.19% (2.655|49//66,010)

2. Ricky Duran "You Are the Best Thing" 97.38% (1596|43//56,815*)

3. Katie Kadan "I'm Going Down" 97.24% (4,647|132//123.403)

--------------------------------------------------------

4. Max Boyle "Unaware" 95.66% (2184|99//62,424)

5. Jake Hoot "Danny's Song" 95.27% (1248|62//50,868)

6. Marybeth Byrd "Go Rest High on That Mountain" 94.96% (1751|93//80,203)

7. Myracle Holloway "I'm Your Baby Tonight" 94.62% (1,653|94//63,312)

8. Kat Hammock "Danny Boy" 94.55% (1,719|99//62,694)

9. Hello Sunday "Mama Knows Best" 94.30% (3,060|185//87,150)

10. Cali Wilson "Butterflies" 93.67% (1095|74//43,159)

--------------------------------------------------------

11. Will Breman "I Won't Give Up" 93.36% (2,347|167//74,876)

12. Joana Martinez "Get on Your Feet" 90.58% (885|92//46,198*)

13. Shane Q "My Wish" 89.47% (918|108//50,153)

* Denotes late posting (Ricky's and Joana's clips were posted a few hours after the others)

 

UPDATED Notes: Scores updated across the board with raw data info added in parenthesis as such: (Likes|Dislikes//Views). Only one change in the rankings thus far: Myracle edges ahead of Kat by a smidgen, dropping the latter one spot to #8. Everyone's scores ticked up a little, with one notable exception: Will's score experienced a healthy bump of about 1.5%. That's a significant jump, indicating that as expected (see original notes below), Will's fans rallied for him on YouTube. It's therefore quite possible they have done the same for him in the official vote. We'll just have to see. Will's still bottom 3, but just barely with 0.4% between him and Cali at #10. Less than 1.3% separates positions 7 and 11, so even though Myracle climbed to #7, she is still VERY much in danger of a bottom 3 finish. Personally, I expect that Marybeth and Kat are safe despite their relative proximity to the danger zone.

 

Original Notes: There's a slightly less than 2% separating the Top 3 scores from the best of the rest of the pack, so that suggests those will remain the Top 3 though the order may change. Rose's scores tend to be very stable, so Ricky's and Katie's fans need to rally during the day. Slightly less than 2% also separates #4 through #10, so expect some shuffle in the ranks. Only 1% separates #10 from the bottom 3 scores. If Will's fans rally, #8 through #10 could be in danger. Joana and Shane should remain the bottom 2 overnight.

 

For comparison's sake, the top YouTube score out of all performances (blinds to present) by contestants who made the Top 20 is 99.09% (Rose Short "Big White Room" - Knockout round performance). The lowest score is 62.79% for Cali Wilson's Top 20 performance of "Toxic".

[dirActing]

Yours is the only score that shows Will in the B3 instead of Myracle. His performance was wtf but I expected him to have strong support bc aspie. Looking at the other polls, that support doesn't look as strong as I thought after all. All the other stats show him making it. It'll be interesting to see if this odd one out is more accurate.

 

But no matter who makes the bottom, Shane is going home.

 

I updated the YouTube scores. These are not my scores per se though. :) They are taken from the raw data of viewers "voting" (i.e. clicking like/dislike) on YouTube , and is therefore their score. I think you're right about Will's support though, and I think it IS as strong as you thought. Look at the updated scores below: Will has closed in significantly on those above him! Personally, I reckon he'll by safe thanks to his fans rallying to save him, and that this will be reflected in the official vote.

 

 

6. Marybeth Byrd "Go Rest High on That Mountain" 94.96% (1751|93//80,203)

7. Myracle Holloway "I'm Your Baby Tonight" 94.62% (1,653|94//63,312)

8. Kat Hammock "Danny Boy" 94.55% (1,719|99//62,694)

9. Hello Sunday "Mama Knows Best" 94.30% (3,060|185//87,150)

10. Cali Wilson "Butterflies" 93.67% (1095|74//43,159)

--------------------------------------------------------

11. Will Breman "I Won't Give Up" 93.36% (2,347|167//74,876)

12. Joana Martinez "Get on Your Feet" 90.58% (885|92//46,198*)

13. Shane Q "My Wish" 89.47% (918|108//50,153)

* Denotes late posting (Ricky's and Joana's clips were posted a few hours after the others)

 

UPDATED Notes: Scores updated across the board with raw data info added in parenthesis as such: (Likes|Dislikes//Views). Only one change in the rankings thus far: Myracle edges ahead of Kat by a smidgen, dropping the latter one spot to #8. Everyone's scores ticked up a little, with one notable exception: Will's score experienced a healthy bump of about 1.5%. That's a significant jump, indicating that as expected (see original notes below), Will's fans rallied for him on YouTube. It's therefore quite possible they have done the same for him in the official vote. We'll just have to see. Will's still bottom 3, but just barely with 0.4% between him and Cali at #10. Less than 1.3% separates positions 7 and 11, so even though Myracle climbed to #7, she is still VERY much in danger of a bottom 3 finish. Personally, I expect that Marybeth and Kat are safe despite their relative proximity to the danger zone.

[thevoicefan]

Joana :'(

[Rodney]

Personally, I reckon he'll by safe thanks to his fans rallying to save him, and that this will be reflected in the official vote.

I doubt that. The voting closed just this morning at seven a.m. EST. No more time for his fans to rally if they did.

[TeamAudra]

I think the days of fan bases and last minute “rallies” are over. It’s almost all casual couch votes at this point. None of these people have significant social media followings to rally. Local fan bases are a possible exception (Addison, Chevel, Chris Kroeze), but ever since they changed the voting deadline to a time when most people are still sleeping, I’m not sure how much of effect that has either, since they can’t get the morning news bump.

[season1]

TOP 13 SUMMARY

 

If the social media indicators are predictive, Shane and Joana are in the bottom 3 (10/11 metrics) and the 3rd person could be Myracle (6/11 metrics).

 

Other names that are in bottom 3 based on one of more metrics are:

Cali (FB ratio, YT Likes)

Rose (FB views)

Max (FB likes)

Kat (FB ratio)

Jake (Twitter)

Will (YT Score)

 

 

 

BOTTOM 3 PREDICTIONS ON SOCIAL MEDIA

 

1. FB VIEWS

Shane

Rose

Joana

 

2. FB LIKES

Max

Shane

Joana

 

3. FB RATIO

Kat

Myracle

Cali

 

4. GOOGLE TRENDS

Myracle

Joana

Shane

 

5. YT LIKES

Cali

Shane

Joana

 

6. TWITTER RT+LIKES

Jake

Joana

Shane

 

7. IG VIEWS

Myracle

Joana

Shane

 

8. YT SCORE

Will

Joana

Shane

 

9. MJ BLOG POLL

Joana

Myracle

Shane

 

10. TV LINE POLL

Joana

Myracle

Shane

 

 

11. ITUNES (7 am)

Shane

Myracle

Joana

Edited November 20, 2019 by season1

[+Naira]

TOP 13 SUMMARY

If the social media indicators are predictive, Shane and Joana are in the bottom 3 (10/11 metrics) and the 3rd person could be Myracle (6/11 metrics).

Won't be surprised if we get one or two shockers. Except for the top 3 in most of those stats/polls, everybody's numbers are really close. Could be a painful results show.

 

[season1]

TOP 13 SUMMARY

 

If the social media indicators are predictive, Shane and Joana are in the bottom 3 (10/11 metrics) and the 3rd person could be Myracle (6/11 metrics).

 

Other names that are in bottom 3 based on one of more metrics are:

Cali (FB ratio, YT Likes)

Rose (FB views)

Max (FB likes)

Kat (FB ratio)

Jake (Twitter)

Will (YT Score)

...

 

Social media bombed this week. FB Likes got 2 out of 3 - Max and Joana, and YT Likes got 2 out of 3 - Joana and Cali. Cali was also correctly predicted in B3 on FB ratio. Other platforms only correctly predicted Joana in B3.

Edited November 20, 2019 by season1

[TeamAudra]

Social media bombed this week. FB Likes is the one that got 2 out of 3 - Max and Joana, while FB ratio predicted Cali. Other platforms only predicted Joana.

 

I don’t think it flopped at all. Rarely is going to match the voting order exactly. None of the B3 are huge shocks, even though Shane getting voted through is huge surprise. As the season goes on, the numbers will probably tighten up a bit more.

Edited November 20, 2019 by TeamAudra

[+Naira]

Won't be surprised if we get one or two shockers. Except for the top 3 in most of those stats/polls, everybody's numbers are really close. Could be a painful results show.

Just as I suspected.

 

[season1]

I don’t think it flopped at all. Rarely is going to match the voting order exactly. None of the B3 are huge shocks, even though Shane getting voted through is huge surprise. As the season goes on, the numbers will probably tighten up a bit more.

 

I guess I should have expanded the summary to denote safe-maybe-in danger. I meant to do that this week but I didn't have time before the show so I just went with the quick B3 summary.

[TeamAudra]

I guess I should have expanded the summary to denote safe-maybe-in danger. I meant to do that this week but I didn't have time before the show so I just went with the quick B3 summary.

 

Mercfan used to use Red, Yellow, Green. I’m just saying even if it wasn’t completely accurate, we can still get a pretty good idea of who’s resonating with the audience. At least we know Shane Q isn’t winning.

 

There are no guarantees. Social media missed badly with Chris Kroeze all season. Everyone was convinced he was in 4th place. That one still has me stumped.

[season1]

Maybe we should look at GoldDerby too - their odds predicted Cali and Joana in the bottom.

 

https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odd...oice-17-top-13/

 

 

[ATX29]

Won't be surprised if we get one or two shockers. Except for the top 3 in most of those stats/polls, everybody's numbers are really close. Could be a painful results show.

 

Nailed it.